Exports – The Forgotten Side of the Trade Deficit

Posted by Consumers for World Trade Fri, 11 May 2007 14:24:00 GMT

Ezra Finkin

May 11, 2007 - Robert Samuelson, the noted economist and columnist, has just remarked on China's predatory behavior in undermining the U.S. economy and global trade system. According to his recent column in the Washington Post entitled China's Trade Time Bomb, Mr. Samuelson states that China's policy of undervaluing its currency by as much as forty percent "threatens to wreck the entire post-World War II trading system." By keeping the value of the Chinese currency low, Americans are able to purchase an even greater amount of imported consumer goods. In fact, our appetite for cheap imported goods is so great that it continues to erode our trade balance, namely the difference between our exports and imports. According to the article, if we don't do something quick to wean us off our addiction to Chinese imports, this trade imbalance will throw the U.S. into penury.

How do you do this? By making Chinese imports more expensive. Congress and the U.S. government are currently considering policies to punish China for its currency manipulation by claiming that such actions are illegal government subsidies according to international trade law. As such, the U.S. may impose unilateral tariffs, or border taxes, on all Chinese products designed to inflate the price of these goods in the U.S. In theory, as prices rise U.S. consumers won't purchase as much imports as before and our trade balance will get better so we can all rest assure that there won't be another Great Depression. However, a more realistic analysis reveals that unilateral U.S. action to inflate the price of Chinese imports won't reduce our consumption. Most likely, Americans will buy the same T-shirts, shoes and electronics as before but at much higher prices. This will even further inflate the value of our imports worsening the trade deficit.

A much more reasoned approach to improving the trade deficit is to realize that our trade imbalance has two sides. Instead of punishing consumers for purchasing imports, our government should focus on efforts to stimulate our exports abroad. Rising exports also improves our trade balance. By focusing on export promotion, we can have our cake and it eat too. American consumers get access to cheap imported consumer goods, American industry gains access to foreign markets for its products and services and the trade balance doesn't look so bad.

With regards to export promotion to China, the U.S. unfortunately seems keen to restrict the export of many products to our largest trading partner. The Department of Commerce is moving full steam ahead on a regulation designed to stem the sale of many U.S. products to China out of an effort to hinder Chinese military modernization. Unfortunately, the many parts and components needed for a modern army are also the same parts and components required for an advanced industrial economy. This regulation would impose many bureaucratic hurdles involved in the export of many run-of-the-mill high-tech communication, aviation and even advanced textile products to China. In all likelihood, the U.S. would loose market share in these industries responsible for a vital and healthy export market to our Japanese and European competitors.

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